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Greenville Business Magazine

Monthly Musings About Tariffs, Business Confidence

May 02, 2025 09:22AM ● By David Dykes

The Greenville Chamber released the results of its Spring 2025 Upstate Business Confidence Index Survey, revealing a business community that is uncertain about the economic outlook. 

While some businesses anticipate growth, others foresee challenges ahead, underscoring the key theme of an unsettled regional business community.

The survey, which gathered insights from more than 100 of the Greenville Chamber’s most engaged investors, highlights a split in expectations for the next six months. 

While 38 percent of respondents expect business conditions to improve, 34 percent anticipate conditions will get worse. 

The division is particularly pronounced among small businesses, which report heightened concerns about rising costs and operational challenges.

“In times of uncertainty, businesses need reliable data and strong community support,” Carlos Phillips, Greenville Chamber president/CEO, said in a statement. “The Chamber is committed to informing and influencing decisions with better data which will help the business community move forward with confidence.”

Key findings from the survey include:

  • Business Conditions: A nearly even split in expectations for the next six months, with optimism slightly lower among small businesses.
  • Rising Costs: The overwhelming majority of employers anticipate increased payroll and benefits expenses, affecting profitability and hiring decisions.
  • Barriers to Growth: Inflation, labor force challenges, financing hurdles, and regulatory burdens are among the top obstacles to growth. For manufacturers, both supply chain and regulatory issues are significant concerns.
  • Sector Variability: Several key industries, such as manufacturing, services, and health care, report below-average confidence compared to others.
  • Long-Term Outlook on Greenville: More than 92 percent of businesses indicated that they would still be operating in Greenville in five years, with most planning on being larger than they are now.

Plans are for the survey to be administered every six months to provide additional insight into changes in regional business confidence. 

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Meanwhile, consumer sentiment continued to deteriorate in early April as households grew increasingly worried about tariff-induced inflation, according to Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein. 

In an economic indicator report, the two said consumers are growing more and more pessimistic, noting consumer sentiment slid to 50.8 in early April, which rivals the all-time low hit nearly three years ago.

Both the measures of consumers' views on current conditions and expectations for the future slid lower, and the big takeaway from the data is households are feeling uneasy around tariffs, the economists said. 

Their report said that in the next 12 months, consumers now expect inflation to reach 6.7 percent, or the highest since 1981. Longer-term inflation expectations over the next five to 10 years also inched higher to 4.4 percent, which is also the highest rate since 1991.

This is an unusual development in that consumer inflation expectations typically follow realized inflation, Quinlan and Grein said. 

“We learned earlier this week that the Consumer Price Index showed a drop in inflation for March with price changes broadly coming in better than expected. Data on producer prices out earlier this morning were also softer than expectations. Yet, consumers are growing increasingly concerned about the coming price environment given how widely tariffs are reaching,” the economists said.

They added that market-based measures of inflation expectations have shown a somewhat similar but more muted pattern in the near term where short-term market-based measures have increased, but longer-term inflation expectations as measured by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) had fallen since the start of the month. 

The economists said that taking everything into account, these patterns are similar to what econometric results reveal that initial-tariff induced inflation should not be long-lasting. 

Monetary policymakers, they said, may look through a temporary pop in price growth when it comes to setting policy if it feels confident that longer-term inflation expectations are “anchored.” 

Ultimately, Quinlan and Grein said it remains to be seen how inflationary the impulse from tariffs is, which depends on where tariff rates settle and how businesses react to higher costs. 

Even as inflation has moderated over the past year, they said consumers are more price sensitive today, leaving less cushion for them to take price hikes. 

“We've seen some evidence of a pull-forward in demand among businesses and consumers ahead of tariffs, but consumers' views on buying conditions deteriorated in early April,” the economists said. “Fewer consumers viewed it as a good time to buy a vehicle, major household item, or home. The early April tariff escalation is likely a factor, and we also must consider that a front-running in demand will likely be met with payback later in the year.”

But they add the U.S. consumer has proved remarkably resilient in recent years. 

“Ultimately, consumer sentiment and confidence measures are not necessarily the best leading indicator for actual spend,” the economists said. “While most metrics of household optimism have been depressed in the wake of the pandemic, households have kept spending. The deterioration in optimism is not a positive development for consumer spending, but we don't expect it alone will drive households into hiding.”

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Fans want to know that when tickets to their favorite artist’s summer tour drop, they have a chance of getting good seats at face value. 

They don’t want to have to compete with people cheating the system by buying more tickets than allowed by the ticket seller. And they really don’t want to have to buy their tickets at seriously inflated prices from ticket resellers who cheated the system. 

That’s the problem Congress was trying to address with the Better Online Ticket Sales (BOTS) Act of 2016, according to the Federal Trade Commission.

FTC officials say:

The BOTS Act prohibits people from circumventing a ticket issuer’s security measures or purchasing rules. 

For example, the act makes it illegal to bypass maximum ticket purchasing limits through technological means or by buying tickets under fake identities. 

And it’s also illegal to sell any tickets that were bought in violation of the statute if you participated in or could control the circumvention, or knew or should have known the tickets were acquired that way.

A recent White House executive order called on the FTC to protect fans from exploitive ticket scalping by vigorously enforcing the BOTS Act. If you’re a ticket seller or reseller, it’s time to get your house in order, FTC officials say. 

Here’s what to know.

Tickets to most events are covered. The BOTS Act applies to tickets to events of all sizes – as long as they are open to the public and take place in a venue with a seating or attendance capacity of more than 200 people. The ct covers any concert, theatrical performance, sporting event, show, or similarly scheduled activity that falls into this category.

Violations will cost you. If you violate the BOTS Act, the FTC can seek civil penalties and other relief. Enforcement is nothing new to the FTC. In 2021, the FTC brought three cases against ticket brokers it claimed violated the BOTS Act by using (1) automated ticket-buying software to search for and reserve tickets automatically, (2) software to conceal their IP addresses, and (3) hundreds of fictitious Ticketmaster accounts and credit cards to get around posted event ticket limits. 

To resolve the FTC’s allegations, the companies agreed to orders requiring them to pay $3.7 million in civil penalties.

State attorneys general also may enforce. The FTC’s not the only cop on the beat when it comes to the BOTS Act. The law also authorizes state attorneys general to seek monetary relief or take other enforcement action on behalf of their residents if they’ve been adversely affected by the illegal practices the act covers.

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Hundreds gathered April 9 at the South Carolina Research Authority’s annual summit in Columbia, where Charleston-based Case Status was awarded Company of the Year, Jim Jacob of Storybutton was awarded Founder of the Year, and Hai Yao, Ph.D., of Clemson University and the Medical University of South Carolina was awarded Applied Researcher of the Year.

Officials said Case Status is revolutionizing communication between attorneys and clients by providing all relevant information about their cases in one app, featuring robust integrations with case management systems, increased efficiency, and improved client outcomes.

Jacob founded Storybutton, a startup that features a podcast player for children, playing engaging bedtime stories, child-friendly radio shows, and more, all without the risk of excessive screen time. 

Yao is a professor at both Clemson University and the Medical University of South Carolina and the associate department chair for the Clemson-MUSC Bioengineering Program. 

He founded Apex Orthopedic Technologies, a medical device startup that addresses a critical need for less-invasive solutions to treat spinal deformities in young children.

The criteria for being nominated for the Company of the Year award include exceptional job and revenue growth, a unique product or service, being a recognized technology leader with protected intellectual property, and proven scale-up capabilities. 

The criteria for being nominated for Founder of the Year include being a visionary leader, a creative and technologically disruptive game-changer, having relentless passion, and telling a compelling and inspiring story. 

The criteria for being nominated for Applied Researcher of the Year include conducting breakthrough research in emerging technologies, serving as a university champion for use-inspired research that reaches commercial applications, and demonstrating a passion for research with market use and societal impact.

Themed "Founders First," the summit celebrated the hard work of founders who are fueling our state’s innovation economy. 

It was a time for SCRA-supported and funded entrepreneurs, startups, project leaders, and members of the state’s entrepreneurial ecosystem to come together, network, and learn more about how to grow their businesses successfully. 

The success of these startups leads to economic growth and the creation of new jobs in the state, which pay 71 percent higher than the state’s average.

The keynote speaker was Ted Tanner, a chief technology officer, founder, AI expert, and published author. 

He inspired the audience by encouraging everyone to embrace the benefits of AI while remaining vigilant in understanding the risks involved in unauthorized and unethical use.